CORTENIn the HT/FT market, add the probabilities of 1/1 + X/1 + 2/1 for a full-time home win; repeat for the draw and away win. First normalise each market's margin separately, then compare the resulting shares with 1X2 prices recorded at the same time for the same match. A difference describes prices; it is not a prediction or a betting opportunity by itself.
HT/FT combines half-time and full-time outcomes into nine paths. Odds analysis translates prices into implied probabilities while exposing margins and data limits. This article asks a narrower question: how close is the full-time distribution implied by HT/FT to the same match's 1X2 distribution?
Start with comparable prices
Match, team order, regulation-time scope and price timestamp must match. Do not compare a regulation-time 1X2 market with a different settlement scope, or opening HT/FT prices with closing 1X2 prices. Record the source and timestamp. The opening and closing odds guide explains why timing matters.
Synthetic example: nine paths, three results
These are invented prices, not a real match. HT/FT prices are 1/1=3.10, X/1=4.80, 2/1=28.00; 1/X=15.00, X/X=5.20, 2/X=15.00; 1/2=34.00, X/2=8.50, 2/2=6.40. The 1X2 prices are 1=2.10, X=3.40, 2=3.70.
Each price's raw implied probability is 1 / odds. The nine HT/FT values sum to 119.56%; the three 1X2 values sum to 104.06%. For simple proportional normalisation, divide each raw value by the total within its own market. Then group HT/FT paths by full-time 1, X or 2.
| Full time | HT/FT paths | Normalised HT/FT share | Normalised 1X2 share | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1/1 + X/1 + 2/1 | 47.39% | 45.76% | +1.63 points |
| X | 1/X + X/X + 2/X | 27.24% | 28.26% | −1.03 points |
| 2 | 1/2 + X/2 + 2/2 | 25.37% | 25.97% | −0.60 points |
For example, the HT/FT full-time home-win share is (1/3.10 + 1/4.80 + 1/28.00) / 1.195578 ≈ 47.39%. The 1X2 share is (1/2.10) / 1.040578 ≈ 45.76%. Rounded table columns may not add to exactly 100%. This simple method distributes the margin proportionally; it does not measure the true probability.
What does a 1.63-point gap mean?
In these synthetic prices, the HT/FT home-win share exceeds the 1X2 share by 1.63 percentage points. The markets may differ in margin, pricing method, liquidity and update speed. Record the gap as a consistency question; it is not evidence on its own of a mispriced market, arbitrage or a match outcome. Proportional normalisation also makes an assumption about how margin is distributed.
Where does the fixture fit?
Fixture details do not enter the probability calculation. Use the fixture analysis guide to record each team's previous and next match dates, rest interval, home or away sequence and any travel load separately. A tight schedule must not be assumed to cause a price gap; check it alongside news and timestamps. Avoid match-specific claims without current fixture and squad information.
A short match checklist
- Verify the same match, team order and regulation-time scope.
- Record source and timestamp for all nine HT/FT and three 1X2 prices.
- Calculate each market's margin and normalise each market separately.
- Sum HT/FT paths ending in 1, X and 2; compare with 1X2 in percentage points.
- Record fixture, squad news and missing data separately; avoid certainty about the result.
For a broader workflow, read how to analyse a football match. For calculations, use the margin calculator.
Published 8 November 2026 · Last updated: 8 November 2026 · Responsible: Cortenscore editorial team · Spotted an error? Report a correction. This article is for statistics education; it is not a match prediction or betting advice. All prices are synthetic.